If Maine birthrates continue their downward trend, that coveted designation "native Mainer" is going to become as rare as a tourist in February.
Maine had the lowest birthrate in the nation in 1998, the most recent year for which statistics are available. The state recorded 11 births per 1,000 population vs. 14 births per 1,000 nationally, according to the state's Office of Data, Research and Vital Statistics.
Maine's 1998 rate actually rose slightly from 1997, by 63 births, or one-half percent. It was the first year-to-year increase since a downward trend began in 1990, when the birthrate was 14.4 per 1,000 residents.
But it wasn't nearly enough to stop the narrowing gap between births and deaths in the state, which had the highest age-adjusted death rate in New England in 1998.
The decade-long trend means fewer children to fill classrooms, fewer workers to build the state's economy and fewer buyers for those family-friendly homes in the suburbs. And as young people decide to seek their fortunes elsewhere, it only adds to Maine's population problem.
Deirdre Mageean, interim director of the Margaret Chase Smith Center for Public Policy, said when younger people leave the state it's a double loss because "you lose them and their potential children. And when you gain people you can gain two generations as opposed to one," said Mageean, who is also an associate professor of resource economics and policy at the University of Maine.
The statistics partly reflect Maine's demographics. In 1997, Maine was the fourth "oldest" state – behind Pennsylvania, Florida and New York – so there are fewer women of childbearing age living here as a proportion of the population.
The numbers also reflect the state's lack of ethnic diversity. Minority populations such as Hispanics and African Americans tend to have higher birthrates than the white population.
"In the country as a whole, the birthrate for white women is also falling," said Charles Colgan, professor of public policy and management at the Muskie School of Public Service. "It's just that (in Maine) we have no populations with larger birthrates that are offsetting the decline among the white population."
Declining birthrates also can be offset by in-migration of young people into the state. Normally, good economic times means there are more people moving to Maine, but during the most recent boom that flow slowed to a trickle. From 1997 to 1998, the state had a net gain of just 696 people.
"That's the smallest number of in-migrants in 18 years," Mageean said.
The overall picture is mirrored by the latest census figures, which shows that Maine's population growth – only 3.8 percent since 1990 – has been among the slowest in the nation.
The slow growth has implications for schools, housing starts and the work force.
The demographics that have driven sprawl will reverse during the next couple of decades as retirees abandon life in the suburbs, Colgan said.
"You're going to get to the point where mowing the two-acre lawn isn't going to seem like such a great thing anymore after your kids are gone from high school," he said. "So over the next 20 years we'll see a transition occur. I'm not saying that the whole issue of sprawl is dead, it's going to take a new form."
If the birthrates continue to decline, people move away and there is no in-migration to replace them, "We won't have to worry about sprawl because there won't be much of an economy left," he said. "There will be literally no job growth because there's no labor force."
Maine is similar to some European countries, such as Italy, that are struggling with declining birthrates and worried about how a dwindling work force will sustain their economies, Mageean said. Some of those countries are looking to immigrants to help solve the problem.
"To alter our older profile, you would need years of sustained in-migration," she said. "It took us a long while to get to this point, and it would take us a long while to reverse the trend."
Staff Writer Meredith Goad can be contacted at 791-6332 or at: mgoad@pressherald.com
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